A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
